The Impact of Government Response on the US Stock Market during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

Although pandemics have occurred with some degree of frequency over the past century, the degree to which social and economic pandemic-related government responses have been used across the globe during the COVID-19 pandemic period has been unprecedented. Using the S&P 500 stock market index return over the period January 2020-June 2021as our dependent variable in a regression-based model, we measure, via a Government Response Index, the extent to which government response impacted stock market returns. We also include the VIX (“fear gauge”), Market Value, Trading Volume, and Price-to-Earnings Ratios to control for other factors that may have impacted the market during the pandemic. Although we found that the VIX was highly negatively correlated with stock market returns during this period, we found very limited evidence of a significant relationship between stock market returns and government response over this time period. Thus, we believe it would be prudent for governments to be more strategic in their approach regarding initiatives if or when a future pandemic should arise, as not all government-related policy initiatives have the intended effect.